The Wisdom of Crowds
or Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few.
This book got my intention when I read that a lot of blogger.com people were currently reading it. And I don’t regret reading it. Though I admit that the main point is very simple and doesn’t even need half of the book that follows to prove it, I never found the book boring or lengthy, just very insightful and what’s even better, entertaining. Yes, I had a smile on my face more than once. Some examples Surowiecki gives are more fascinating than others, and your mileage will vary for sure. Plus I got more than one idea on how to use the knowledge a crowd can provide.
Let me point out the essence of the whole book:
Assume you want to know how many jelly beans are in a given jar (ok, this is just an example). Now you could invest the time to find an expert on estimating the number of jelly beans. Or you could just ask as many ordinary people as possible for their guess and calculate the average of all guesses. And in a whole lot of cases this average will be the best guess you can make. And yes, there are things in life where this can work that are more worthwhile than counting jelly beans 
So instead of chasing the expert or recruiting her, just ask all the people around you. The more diverse their background the better. Instead of watching the weather forecast, ask 1,000 of your neighbours for their guess whether it will rain tomorrow. Maybe this could be more accurate than the forecast …
These are the main requirements for a wise crowd:
- Diversity of opinion
- Independence of members
- Decentralization
- A method for aggregating opinions (e.g., collecting the data and calculating the average)
Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Sounds like the internet. Like blogcritics.org. I admit that I solve a lot of every-day problems just by using a search engine. I don’t really want to make doctors or lawyers redundant, but instead of consulting them first I consult the wise oracle first (don’t do this at home kids). And it yields good results for me. If I found a lot of stuff pointing in the same direction, I assume it’s right. If the information is too diverse, I consult the doctor, finally.
September 22nd, 2005 at 10:00 pm
I enjoyed your synopsis of the book of which you write. I agree that the more perspectives that one can include into his analysis of a situation, the more likelihood that the solution he devises to contend with the situation well be successful. I say this because as many contingencies as possible have been disclosed by the diversity of perspectives rendered by the diversity of people who contributed to the synthesis of vantage points.
There is a Nietzschean element to your philosophy. I am speaking of the Ubermensch. He or she attempts to become as cosmopolitan as possible by learning of as many cultural perspectives as possible. His perspective is a conglomeration of a multiplicity of perspectives. This sophistication makes him superior to the ordinary man who simply takes his cultural tradition for granted, because the Ubermensch has access to a diversity of perspectives, allowing him or her to possess insights into situations of which the cultural man could never have conceived.
Russ Cole